Tools > Fold Equity / Semi-Bluff EV

Fold Equity / Semi-Bluff EV

Should you fire that bet? Compares the EV of betting vs. checking behind.

Pot before your bet ($)

Your bet ($)

Chance villain folds: 45% Your equity when called: 33% (share of pot you win at showdown if called)

EV of betting

EV of checking (realize equity in current pot)

Gain from betting

Break-even fold % (if bet were 0-equity bluff)

EV(bet) = fold%·pot + call%·(equity·(pot+2·bet) − bet). EV(check) = equity·pot (you take your showdown share of the current pot, no more money in). A pure bluff (0% equity) needs villain to fold more than bet / (pot + bet) of the time to profit — the break-even line above.